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DEAuthors: Marco Melega and Michael Desloover, Volunteers of NGO Promote Ukraine
For one year, Dalila, an Egyptian mother of three, has been queueing every morning outside a state-run kiosk in Cairo to receive her daily quota of “baladi” bread loaves, the subsidized flatbread essential for her family’s meals. She gained access to the ration card system, managed by the Ministry of Social Solidarity to support low-income households, after her husband died working as a bricklayer. The bread is made from a mix of domestically grown and imported wheat, which is primarily shipped from Russia and Ukraine (77% in 2021) through the Black Sea, due to the competitive prices, lower freight costs, and shorter travel distances to Egyptian ports.
Ukraine, known as the “world’s breadbasket,” is a top grain producer globally. Before the Russian invasion, Ukraine exported 60 million tons of grain annually, covering 10% of the global market, with 90% transported from Black Sea ports. Over half of Ukraine’s food exports went to lower-income countries in Africa and the Middle East, supporting millions facing chronic hunger. The UN’s World Food Program estimated these exports could feed 400 million people.
When Russian military vessels blocked Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea for over four months after the invasion began in February 2022, grain exports were severely disrupted. This caused a significant price increase and a global food security crisis, critically threatening Egypt’s subsidized bread program.
Furthermore, satellite images, shipping data, and local farmers’ complaints showed that Russia systematically stole grain and other produce from Ukrainian farmers, transporting it to Russia. This grain was then mixed with Russian grain and exported to Syria or Turkey with Russian certificates, stating that it was produced by Russia.
To address the price increase, restore imports, and resolve the humanitarian crisis, the UN established the Black Sea Grain Initiative, signed on July 22, 2022, by Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine. This allowed Ukrainian grain to be exported from three key Black Sea ports. According to the agreement, Ukrainian vessels guided cargo ships into international waters to avoid mines, proceeding towards Istanbul along a humanitarian corridor. Unfortunately, Russia refused to renew the Initiative after its third term expired on July 17, 2023.
Alternative routes to the Black Sea corridor include shipments via the River Danube to Romania’s Constanta Port and land routes to the west. However, these options are more expensive and face congestion and delays due to limited port capacity.
Therefore, in August 2023, Ukraine, with Western partners, established an alternative Black Sea corridor between Ukrainian ports and the Bosporus Strait. This initiative allows ships to travel through Romanian and Bulgarian waters, enabling Ukraine to continue exporting wheat, corn, sunflower oil, and barley to the Middle East, Asia, and Africa. However, this corridor faces risks from Russian attacks on commercial ships and infrastructure, as well as floating mines.
In one month, several attacks aimed to disrupt food security. On September 12, a Russian missile struck the Turkish-operated, Saint Kitts and Nevis-flagged vessel Aya, carrying 26,550 tons of grain to Egypt, enough to feed 130,000 people for a year. This attack increased grain futures prices by 40%, affecting bread affordability. Over the course of four days, Russia attacked three cargo vessels from Ukrainian ports. On October 6, the Palau-flagged ship Paresa, carrying 6,000 tons of grain, was assaulted by a Russian bomber. The next day, a Russian missile hit the Saint Kitts and Nevis-flagged vessel Optima, carrying 7,800 tons of grain. On October 9, Ukraine reported a strike damaging the Panama-flagged vessel Shui Spirit. According to Ukraine’s Minister of Community and Territorial Development of Ukraine Oleksiy Kuleba, Russia has attacked over 20 civilian vessels in Ukraine since the invasion began, aiming to disrupt the grain corridor and global food security.
To avoid episodes like these and ensure safe operations in this corridor, Ukraine needs strong military protection from Russian threats and active demining of land and waterways. Long-range missiles and air defence systems should be installed in Ukrainian seaports to deter Russia’s fleet. Ukraine has successfully used long-range missiles like the Storm Shadow/SCALP to strike back at crucial Russian military targets, demonstrating their effectiveness in deterring naval operations. Ukraine has also resisted Russian naval dominance with sea drones and land-based anti-ship missiles, reducing attacks on ships. NATO is conducting more scouting and patrol missions with drones in these areas, crucial for defending vessels delivering food worldwide.Providing long-range missiles and air defence systems to Ukraine is therefore essential not only to support its fight against the Russian invader and restore peace but also to prevent a further humanitarian crisis. This decision could save the lives of civilians burdened by the invasion and help vulnerable people like Dalila secure daily food, in many parts of the world.