Russia on Operational Pause, Continues to Prepare for Protracted War in Ukraine

The Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation has claimed territorial “gains” every day since 24 February, but no statements or assessments were made on 6 July, for the first time in 133 days of the war.

“The Russian Defence Ministry claimed territorial gains every day from the start of the war but has not claimed any new territory or ground force movements since completing the encirclement of Lysychansk on 3 July,” reads the report by the US Institute for the Study of War.

As noted, such attempts are consistent with an “operational pause” of the occupation troops, which does not imply or require the complete cessation of active hostilities.

According to the ISW analysts, Russian forces will likely confine themselves to relatively small-scale offensive actions as they attempt to set conditions for more significant offensive operations and rebuild the combat power.

The ISW also underscores that the Kremlin continued to set conditions for the crypto-mobilisation of the Russian economy in anticipation of protracted operations in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Die Welt German outlet, referring to data from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, writes that the aid to Ukraine has dropped greatly in recent weeks. This trend began to be traced two days after the Russian military had announced the capture of the Luhansk region.

The media outlet notes that the situation with the supply of missile launchers and howitzers to Ukraine remains difficult. Kyiv also has problems with financial aid. It is still paid too slowly to stabilise the country’s budget in the long term. At the same time, international donor conferences pay more attention to Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction programmes.

Bohdan Marusyak