Analysing consequences of Hybrid War if Russia wins: Hans Petter Midttun

Ukraine is in the process of adopting a new National Security Strategy of Ukraine called “Security of a Person – Security of a Country” based on the presidential election program. The strategy was submitted to the president for his approval on 18 February 2020, the very same day as Russia started a limited offensive near Zolote (next to one out of three disengagement areas).

According to Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine, the strategy is a

human development strategy, a military security strategy, a public security and civil defense strategy, a strategy for the development of defense-industrial complex, an economic, environmental, information security strategy, a cybersecurity strategy, a national intelligence program, a foreign policy security strategy, national security strategy, counter-intelligence, and counter-terrorism, etc.

It defines the priority areas of national security policy, its aim, and objectives, and forms the basis for further reform and development.

Where the National Security Strategy will attempt to outline what Ukraine should become, I will try to describe what Ukraine might become if Russia emerges as the victor at the end of the ongoing (hybrid) war.

I am not assessing the likelihood of Russia winning or Ukraine losing. The sole purpose of the two articles is to describe an alternative scenario in order to highlight the hybrid threat and consequently, what needs to be defended. I will also try to outline the potential consequences for Europe in order to ensure that a Ukrainian success remains (or becomes) a national interest of the individual Western nations.

In order to achieve the former, the Hybrid War needs to be conceptualized.

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